• November 10, 2024
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Another Blow to U.S. Financial Policy!

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In recent developments, the global financial landscape has experienced a significant upheaval, primarily driven by China's aggressive response to the financial and trade tensions initiated by the United StatesOn December 5, 2023, the US dollar encountered substantial selling pressure, plummeting by 650 basis points in a single day, a decline that pushed the dollar index to levels seen 30 days priorAmid this turmoil, the Chinese stock market exhibited exceptional resilience, leading to a striking rally.

The sudden depreciation of the dollar on December 5 can be attributed to several interrelated factorsThe US labor market reports, expectations surrounding non-farm payrolls, and structural shifts in the global economy all contributed to this volatilityAdditionally, the increasing trend of "de-dollarization" has been manifesting itself, as various countries seek to fortify their own currencies against the dollar.

This weakness in the dollar is not solely the result of uncertain economic data from the US; it also reflects a divergence in expectations regarding the dollar's future standing in international markets

As central banks worldwide take proactive measures to manage their own currency exchange rates, the shrinking market share of the dollar is becoming increasingly evident.

An important highlight is the surging use of the Chinese yuan in cross-border transactionsBy the first quarter of 2024, the yuan's share of these payments has overtaken that of the dollar, marking a significant step forward in China's efforts to promote its currency internationally and further entrenches the trend of moving away from dollar reliance.

In response to the ongoing trade and financial confrontation with the US, China's reactions have been both strategic and robustA new directive has been introduced whereby domestic products can enjoy a 20% price discount in government procurement processesThis initiative is aimed at bolstering the competitiveness of local products and reducing reliance on imports, particularly in high-tech sectors.

This policy response not only represents an economic adjustment but also stands as a significant rebuttal to the US's tactics of imposing tariffs and technological restrictions, intended to undermine China's manufacturing and technology sectors

Instead, China positions itself to foster domestic innovation and manufacturing prowess, especially in cutting-edge fields like semiconductor technology and artificial intelligence.

Beyond bolstering high-tech industries, China is also forging consolidations within its capital marketsMajor players in the Chinese securities sector, such as Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities, are contemplating mergers to form a domestic financial powerhouse capable of rivaling global financial institutions like Morgan Stanley and Deutsche BankThis strategy is designed to enhance the global competitiveness of China's financial markets and significantly increase the infusion of Chinese capital on the international stage.

Top-tier investment banks, including UBS, have recognized that while the dollar maintains its dominant position in the short term, the trend of de-dollarization is increasingly evident—China being at the forefront of this shift

By March 2024, the yuan had already surpassed the dollar in terms of global payment share, indicating a fundamental transformation in international currency dynamics.

The backdrop to this de-dollarization trend is a growing discontent with US economic policies and a reconsideration of the risks associated with the dollar's dominanceHigh interest rates in the US, while sustaining the dollar's strength, have simultaneously prompted capital flight and spurred countermeasures from other nationsCountries like Russia, Brazil, and Argentina are actively exploring cross-border payment systems centered around the yuan for greater economic independence.

Moreover, the deepening collaboration between Russia and China in energy and defense sectors is fostering a more significant practical backdrop and demand for the internationalization of the yuanThis rise in the yuan's utility in global payment systems suggests that in the face of US financial sanctions, the internationalization of the yuan could become a pivotal tool for China.

However, despite the increasing presence of the yuan in international transactions, several hurdles remain for it to compete effectively against the dollar

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Primarily, China's capital market openness and liquidity are still relatively restrictedAlthough strides are being made toward the internationalization of China's stock and bond markets, increasing market transparency and aligning with global norms is crucial to attracting more international investment.

Additionally, the acceptance of the yuan in international markets is still limited, largely due to its level of international integrationWhile China has made positive strides in enhancing the yuan's use in transactions, the US financial system continues to wield substantial influence over global capital flows, including critical domains such as oil and gold markets, where the dollar retains preeminenceTo challenge this entrenched position, China must bolster its financial innovation and develop robust multinational partnerships.

China's ambitious Belt and Road Initiative is progressively paving the way for the yuan's internationalization through infrastructure projects and cross-border trade, offering expansive opportunities for the currency and laying the groundwork for China's broader economic ascendancy.

In conclusion, China is engaged in a significant transformation within the financial and economic spheres

Through flexible policy frameworks and breakthroughs in technological innovation, the nation is systematically reducing its dependency on the dollar while actively shaping a new global economic orderAmidst the continuing contest with the US, China is not only striving to maintain its competitive edge in trade but also breaking through the technological barriers imposed by its rival.

Despite the uncertainties and challenges that lie in the international arena, China's robust economic growth and the accelerating pace of yuan internationalization reveal a steadfast strategic vision and determination.

This global economic rivalry may only be in its initial stagesIn the forthcoming years, observers will witness the emergence of a more diversified, de-dollarized global financial system, with China poised to confront new opportunities and challenges.

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